Your institutional CDR may not be showing you the real risk.
The Cohort Default Rate is calculated at the institutional level. It blends every program and major into a single number. Graduate programs, law schools, and medical programs pull that average down. Workforce programs, criminal justice, and non-clinical health professions can carry default rates two to three times the institutional average — and they net against each other in the CDR calculation.
The result is a CDR that looks manageable, sitting on top of a program cluster that may already be near or above the 30 percent sanction threshold.
Goal’s Programmatic Risk Concentration analysis breaks your CDR down to the CIP code level. We identify which programs are driving your risk, how concentrated that risk is, and what the trajectory looks like heading into the next cohort. We do this work at no cost, using your NSLDS delinquency file, before any commercial engagement begins.
We work across two windows of the borrower lifecycle. Most vendors operate in only one. Goal connects both — with a single reporting framework and a commercial model built entirely around outcomes.
the goal solutions approach
| ~2,000 |
institutions with nonpayment rates at or above 25%
FSA Data Center, June 2026 |
| $220B |
in outstanding federal loans currently in default
FSA Portfolio Data, March 2026 |
| 9 million |
borrowers in default today
FSA Portfolio Data, March 2026 |
| 15.5% |
of active-repayment balances 31+ days delinquent — vs. 12.7% pre-pandemic
FSA Data Center, March 2026 |
Official Cohort Default Rates were 0.0% nationally for FY2020, FY2021, and FY2022 due to the federal payment pause. The FY2023 CDR will be the first cohort to reflect real repayment behavior since before the pandemic. Institutions operating from pre-pandemic CDR baselines are working with an incomplete picture.
Share your NSLDS delinquency file and Goal returns a full Programmatic Risk Concentration analysis — which programs are driving your risk, how concentrated that risk is, and what your CDR trajectory looks like at current delinquency rates. We do this at no cost, under standard data handling protocols, before any commercial relationship begins.